Larrick Richard P, Wu George
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 2007 Aug;93(2):212-33. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.93.2.212.
Three studies show that negotiators consistently underestimate the size of the bargaining zone in distributive negotiations (the small-pie bias) and, by implication, overestimate the share of the surplus they claim (the large-slice bias). The authors explain the results by asymmetric disconfirmation: Negotiators with initial estimates of their counterpart's reservation price that are "inside" the bargaining zone tend to behave consistently with these estimates, which become self-fulfilling, whereas negotiators with initial "outside" estimates revise their perceptions in the face of strong disconfirming evidence. Asymmetric disconfirmation can produce a population-level bias, even when initial perceptions are accurate on average. The authors suggest that asymmetric disconfirmation has implications for confirmation bias and self-fulfilling-prophecy research in social perception.
三项研究表明，谈判者在分配性谈判中总是低估谈判区间的大小（小馅饼偏差），进而高估他们所主张的剩余份额（大份额偏差）。作者通过不对称性否证来解释这些结果：初始估计对方保留价格处于谈判区间“内部”的谈判者往往会按照这些估计一致行事，这些估计会自我实现，而初始估计处于“外部”的谈判者面对有力的否证证据时会修正他们的看法。即使初始看法平均而言是准确的，不对称性否证也会产生总体层面的偏差。作者认为，不对称性否证对社会认知中的确认偏差和自我实现预言研究具有启示意义。
