Rutschmann Frank, Eriksson Torsten, Salim Kamariah Abu, Conti Elena
Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zurich, Zollikerstrasse 107, Zurich, Switzerland.
Syst Biol. 2007 Aug;56(4):591-608. doi: 10.1080/10635150701491156.
Although recent methodological advances have allowed the incorporation of rate variation in molecular dating analyses, the calibration procedure, performed mainly through fossils, remains resistant to improvements. One source of uncertainty pertains to the assignment of fossils to specific nodes in a phylogeny, especially when alternative possibilities exist that can be equally justified on morphological grounds. Here we expand on a recently developed fossil cross-validation method to evaluate whether alternative nodal assignments of multiple fossils produce calibration sets that differ in their internal consistency. We use an enlarged Crypteroniaceae-centered phylogeny of Myrtales, six fossils, and 72 combinations of calibration points, termed calibration sets, to identify (i) the fossil assignments that produce the most internally consistent calibration sets and (ii) the mean ages, derived from these calibration sets, for the split of the Southeast Asian Crypteroniaceae from their West Gondwanan sister clade (node X). We found that a correlation exists between s values, devised to measure the consistency among the calibration points of a calibration set (Near and Sanderson, 2004), and nodal distances among calibration points. By ranking all sets according to the percent deviation of s from the regression line with nodal distance, we identified the sets with the highest level of corrected calibration-set consistency. These sets generated lower standard deviations associated with the ages of node X than sets characterized by lower corrected consistency. The three calibration sets with the highest corrected consistencies produced mean age estimates for node X of 79.70, 79.14, and 78.15 My. These timeframes are most compatible with the hypothesis that the Crypteroniaceae stem lineage dispersed from Africa to the Deccan plate as it drifted northward during the Late Cretaceous.
尽管最近的方法学进展使得在分子年代测定分析中能够纳入速率变化,但主要通过化石进行的校准程序仍难以改进。不确定性的一个来源涉及将化石分配到系统发育树中的特定节点,特别是当存在基于形态学理由同样合理的替代可能性时。在这里,我们扩展了最近开发的化石交叉验证方法,以评估多个化石的替代节点分配是否会产生内部一致性不同的校准集。我们使用以隐翼科为中心的桃金娘目扩大系统发育树、六个化石以及72个校准点组合(称为校准集),来确定(i)产生最内部一致校准集的化石分配,以及(ii)从这些校准集中得出的东南亚隐翼科与其西冈瓦纳姐妹分支(节点X)分裂的平均年龄。我们发现,为测量校准集校准点之间的一致性而设计的s值与校准点之间的节点距离之间存在相关性。通过根据s相对于节点距离回归线的偏差百分比对所有集合进行排名,我们确定了校正校准集一致性水平最高的集合。与校正一致性较低的集合相比,这些集合在节点X年龄方面产生的标准差更低。校正一致性最高的三个校准集得出节点X的平均年龄估计值分别为79.70、79.14和78.15百万年。这些时间框架与隐翼科茎系在晚白垩世向北漂移期间从非洲扩散到德干板块的假设最为相符。