El-Zein Abbas, Nuwayhid Iman, El-Fadel Mutasem, Mroueh Salman
School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2007 Oct 1;384(1-3):134-40. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.06.005. Epub 2007 Jul 30.
This paper assesses whether a ban on diesel-powered motor vehicles in Lebanon has reduced emergency respiratory admissions for children less than 17 years of age in Beirut. Monthly admissions for total respiratory complaints, asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, and upper respiratory tract infections, from October to February, were compared before and after the ban, using Poisson regression models and adjusting for rainfall, humidity and temperature. Analyses were repeated excluding the flu months of January and February. A test of significance of p < or = 0.05 was used. Air pollution is not systematically monitored in Lebanon and no ambient particulate concentration data were available. A significant drop in admissions for respiratory symptoms (p < or = 0.05) and upper respiratory tract infection (p < or = 0.001) from 1 year pre-ban to 1 year post-ban has been recorded. When flu months are excluded, a significant drop (p < or = 0.001) in admissions for all studied categories, except pneumonia, is observed. The effect of the ban however was negligible in the second year. When 2 year pre-ban versus 2 year post-ban are considered excluding flu months, statistically non-significant reductions are recorded for asthma and upper respiratory tract infection (p < or = 0.1). The study hence suggests an impact of the diesel ban on respiratory health only during the first year after the ban. This finding is weakened by the absence of supporting evidence from air quality monitoring and speciation of particulate matter, which are lacking in Lebanon and most developing countries.
本文评估了黎巴嫩对柴油动力机动车实施的禁令是否减少了贝鲁特17岁以下儿童因紧急情况导致的呼吸道疾病入院人数。使用泊松回归模型，并对降雨、湿度和温度进行调整，比较了禁令实施前后10月至2月期间因各种呼吸道疾病、哮喘、支气管炎、肺炎和上呼吸道感染导致的月度入院人数。在分析中排除了1月和2月流感高发月份后重复进行了分析。使用p≤0.05的显著性检验。黎巴嫩未对空气污染进行系统监测，也没有可用的环境颗粒物浓度数据。记录显示，从禁令实施前1年到实施后1年，呼吸道症状（p≤0.05）和上呼吸道感染（p≤0.001）的入院人数显著下降。排除流感月份后，除肺炎外，所有研究类别疾病的入院人数均显著下降（p≤0.001）。然而，禁令在第二年的影响可以忽略不计。当考虑禁令实施前2年与实施后2年（排除流感月份）的数据时，哮喘和上呼吸道感染的入院人数在统计学上的下降不显著（p≤0.1）。因此，该研究表明，柴油禁令仅在实施后的第一年对呼吸道健康产生了影响。由于缺乏空气质量监测和颗粒物成分分析的支持证据，这一发现的说服力有所减弱，而黎巴嫩和大多数发展中国家都缺乏这些数据。
