Sevdalis Nick, Harvey Nigel
University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Psychol Sci. 2007 Aug;18(8):678-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01958.x.
Although anticipated postdecisional regret is a significant contributor to people's decision-making processes, the accuracy of people's regret forecasts has yet to be assessed systematically. Here we report two studies to fill this lacuna. In Study 1, we found that subjects who made reasonably high offers overpredicted the regret that they experienced after they unexpectedly failed at a negotiation. In Study 2, we found that subjects overpredicted the rejoicing and marginally underpredicted the regret that they experienced when they received higher marks than they had expected for their course work. Systematic affective misprediction implies that people making decisions should discount the regret and rejoicing that they anticipate will be associated with potential outcomes arising from those decisions.
尽管预期的决策后遗憾是人们决策过程中的一个重要因素，但人们对遗憾的预测准确性尚未得到系统评估。在此，我们报告两项研究以填补这一空白。在研究1中，我们发现提出较高合理报价的受试者高估了他们在谈判中意外失败后所经历的遗憾。在研究2中，我们发现受试者高估了他们在课程作业中获得高于预期分数时所经历的欣喜，而对遗憾的预测则略有低估。系统性的情感错误预测意味着，做决策的人应该降低他们预期会与这些决策产生的潜在结果相关联的遗憾和欣喜。
