Armon Carmel
Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
J Neurol Sci. 2007 Nov 15;262(1-2):45-53. doi: 10.1016/j.jns.2007.06.021. Epub 2007 Aug 2.
An evidence-based review was undertaken of the literature published between 2002 and 2006 about sports, trauma and ALS in order to see if there were new data to modify the conclusions of a previous review (2003). The new data support the previous conclusions that physical activity and trauma are probably ("more likely than not") not risk factors for ALS (Level II conclusions). This review concludes also that the reports of an apparent excess of ALS in Italian soccer players likely reflect incorrect analysis of the data. The appearance of excess relies on accepting as valid estimation methods resulting in improbably low numbers of expected cases. A different method is proposed: it generates more plausible numbers of expected cases, compared to which there is no excess of total cases (Level C conclusion). A theoretical framework is developed to analyze the possible influence of a "healthy worker effect" on incidence of neurodegenerative diseases in cohorts of employed or formerly employed individuals. In lieu of theoretical speculations, data are needed to measure this effect, while controlling for known lifestyle factors and accounting for the effect of loss of competing causes of mortality.
对2002年至2006年间发表的有关运动、创伤与肌萎缩侧索硬化症(ALS)的文献进行了循证综述,以查看是否有新数据可修正先前综述(2003年)的结论。新数据支持先前的结论,即体力活动和创伤可能(“很有可能”)不是ALS的危险因素(二级结论)。本综述还得出结论,意大利足球运动员中ALS明显过多的报道可能反映了对数据的错误分析。表面上过多的现象依赖于将导致预期病例数低得难以置信的估计方法视为有效。提出了一种不同的方法:它产生了更合理的预期病例数,与之相比,总病例数并无过多(C级结论)。构建了一个理论框架,以分析“健康工人效应”对在职或曾在职人群中神经退行性疾病发病率的可能影响。除了理论推测外,还需要数据来衡量这种效应,同时控制已知的生活方式因素,并考虑竞争性死亡原因丧失的影响。