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使用多状态标记重捕模型评估远洋海鸟的繁殖成本

Assessment of costs of reproduction in a pelagic seabird using multistate mark-recapture models.

作者信息

Townsend Howard M, Anderson David J

机构信息

Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina 27109, USA.

出版信息

Evolution. 2007 Aug;61(8):1956-68. doi: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2007.00169.x.

Abstract

We used a long-term population band-resight survey database, a parallel reproduction database, and multistate mark-recapture analysis to assess the costs of reproduction, a keystone concept of life-history evolution, in Nazca boobies (Sula granti) from Punta Cevallos, Isla Española, Galápagos, Ecuador. We used eight years of resight and breeding data to compare models that included sex- and state-specific survival probabilities and probabilities of transition between reproductive states using multistate mark-recapture models. Models that included state-specific effects were compared with models lacking such effects to evaluate costs of reproduction. The top model, optimizing the trade-off of model simplicity and fit to the data using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), showed evidence of a temporally varying survival cost of reproduction: nonbreeders showed higher annual survival than breeders did in some years. Because increasing investment among breeders showed no negative association with survival and subsequent breeding success, this evidence indicates a cost to both males and females of initiating, but not of continuing, a reproductive attempt. In some cases, breeders reaching the highest reproductive state (fledging an offspring) showed higher survival or subsequent breeding success than did failed breeders, consistent with differences in overall quality that promote both survival and reproduction. Although a male-biased adult sex ratio was observed in this population of Nazca boobies, models of state- and sex-specific survival and transition probabilities were not supported, indicating that males and females do not incur different costs of reproduction, and that the observed sex ratio bias is not due to sex-specific adult mortality.

摘要

我们使用了一个长期的种群重 sight 调查数据库、一个平行繁殖数据库以及多状态标记重捕分析,来评估来自厄瓜多尔加拉帕戈斯群岛伊莎贝拉岛塞瓦略斯角的纳斯卡鲣鸟(Sula granti)的繁殖成本,这是生活史进化的一个关键概念。我们使用了八年的重 sight 和繁殖数据,通过多状态标记重捕模型比较了包含性别和状态特异性生存概率以及繁殖状态之间转换概率的模型。将包含状态特异性效应的模型与缺乏此类效应的模型进行比较,以评估繁殖成本。使用赤池信息准则(AIC)优化模型简约性与数据拟合度权衡的顶级模型,显示出繁殖的生存成本随时间变化的证据:在某些年份,非繁殖者的年生存率高于繁殖者。由于繁殖者增加投资与生存及后续繁殖成功没有负相关,这一证据表明启动繁殖尝试对雄性和雌性都有成本,但持续繁殖没有成本。在某些情况下,达到最高繁殖状态(育雏出一只后代)的繁殖者比繁殖失败的繁殖者表现出更高的生存率或后续繁殖成功率,这与促进生存和繁殖的整体质量差异一致。尽管在这个纳斯卡鲣鸟种群中观察到成年性别比偏向雄性,但状态和性别特异性生存及转换概率的模型未得到支持,这表明雄性和雌性不会产生不同的繁殖成本,且观察到的性别比偏差并非由于成年个体的性别特异性死亡率。

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