[Prognosis and prognostic factors of hemorrhage by rupture of varices in cirrhotic patients in the era of endoscopic sclerotherapy].

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognosis and the determinants of survival in cirrhotics presenting with variceal bleeding. One hundred and ninety one consecutive patients with cirrhosis (alcoholic 93 percent) were enrolled between 1983 and 1988. Treatment was principally but not exclusively based on early endoscopic sclerotherapy. At admission all patients were classified according to Child-Pugh's classification (class A = 16 percent; class B = 53 percent; class C = 31 percent). The rebleeding rates at 48 hours and for the entire hospitalisation were 11 and 30 percent respectively. Actuarial survival rates were 45, 40, and 37 percent at 12, 18, and 36 months, respectively. Prognostic factors, as determined by uni- and multivariate analysis (Cox model), corresponded to Child-Pugh's score, to the five components, and the occurrence of early bleeding recurrence. This study also showed that: i) the role of Child-Pugh's classification on long-term prognosis is determined during the 3 months following index bleeding; ii) early rebleeding is a significant prognostic factor, particularly in Child-Pugh's class B patients; iii) there are few indicators of early rebleeding (serum albumin level, presence of gastric varices at initial endoscopy). Prognosis of variceal bleeding is still severe in cirrhosis but efforts made to prevent early bleeding recurrence seem to be fully justified.