Olwoch J M, Van Jaarsveld A S, Scholtz C H, Horak I G
Department of Geography, Geo-informatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa.
Onderstepoort J Vet Res. 2007 Mar;74(1):45-72. doi: 10.4102/ojvr.v74i1.139.
The suitability of present and future climates for 30 Rhipicephalus species in Africa are predicted using a simple climate envelope model as well as a Division of Atmospheric Research Limited-Area Model (DARLAM). DARLAM's predictions are compared with the mean outcome from two global circulation models. East Africa and South Africa are considered the most vulnerable regions on the continent to climate-induced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases. More than 50% of the species examined show potential range expansion and more than 70% of this range expansion is found in economically important tick species. More than 20% of the species experienced range shifts of between 50 and 100%. There is also an increase in tick species richness in the south-western regions of the sub-continent. Actual range alterations due to climate change may be even greater since factors like land degradation and human population increase have not been included in this modelling process. However, these predictions are also subject to the effect that climate change may have on the hosts of the ticks, particularly those that favour a restricted range of hosts. Where possible, the anticipated biological implications of the predicted changes are explored.
利用一个简单的气候包络模型以及大气研究司有限区域模型（DARLAM）预测了当前和未来气候对非洲30种璃眼蜱属物种的适宜性。将DARLAM的预测结果与两个全球环流模型的平均结果进行了比较。东非和南非被认为是非洲大陆上蜱分布和蜱传疾病受气候影响变化最脆弱的地区。超过50%的被研究物种显示出潜在的分布范围扩张，其中超过70%的范围扩张出现在具有经济重要性的蜱种中。超过20%的物种经历了50%至100%的分布范围变化。该次大陆的西南部地区蜱种丰富度也有所增加。由于土地退化和人口增长等因素未被纳入该建模过程，气候变化导致的实际分布范围变化可能更大。然而，这些预测也受到气候变化可能对蜱的宿主产生的影响，特别是那些偏好有限宿主范围的宿主。在可能的情况下，探讨预测变化的预期生物学影响。
