Hirst E, Carney J
Science. 1978 Feb 24;199(4331):845-51. doi: 10.1126/science.199.4331.845.
We used a detailed engineering-economic simulation model of residential energy use to evaluate the effects of nine different residential energy-use "futures." These "futures" are described in terms of annual and cumulative energy use from 1977 through 2000 by fuel, end use, and in aggregate. Outputs from the model also include economic information on the costs to households of fuels, equipment, and thermal improvements to new and existing structures. The major outputs from these nine cases are shown in Tables 1 and 2 and Figs. 6 and 7.
我们使用了一个详细的住宅能源使用工程经济模拟模型,来评估九种不同的住宅能源使用“未来情景”的影响。这些“未来情景”通过1977年至2000年按燃料、最终用途以及总体的年度和累计能源使用情况来描述。该模型的输出还包括有关家庭在燃料、设备以及对新建筑和现有建筑进行热改进方面成本的经济信息。这九个案例的主要输出结果见表1和表2以及图6和图7。