Yin Fei, Li Xiao-Song, Feng Zi-Jian, Ma Jia-Qi
West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2007 Jun;41 Suppl:155-8.
To investigate the application of prospective space-time scan statistic in the early stage of detecting infectious disease outbreaks.
The prospective space-time scan statistic was tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of bacillary dysentery data of Chengdu city in 2005 (3212 cases in 102 towns and villages). And the results were compared with that of purely temporal scan statistic.
The prospective space-time scan statistic could give specific messages both in spatial and temporal. The results of June indicated that the prospective space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that started from the local site, and the early warning message was powerful (P = 0.007). When the merely temporal scan statistic for detecting the outbreak was sent two days later, and the signal was less powerful (P = 0.039).
The prospective space-time scan statistic could make full use of the spatial and temporal information in infectious disease data and could timely and effectively detect the outbreaks that start from the local sites. The prospective space-time scan statistic could be an important tool for local and national CDC to set up early detection surveillance systems.
探讨前瞻性时空扫描统计量在传染病暴发早期检测中的应用。
通过模拟对2005年成都市细菌性痢疾数据（102个乡镇的3212例病例）进行每日前瞻性分析，对前瞻性时空扫描统计量进行检验。并将结果与单纯时间扫描统计量的结果进行比较。
前瞻性时空扫描统计量在空间和时间上均能给出具体信息。6月的结果表明，前瞻性时空扫描统计量能及时检测到从本地开始的暴发，预警信息有力（P = 0.007）。而单纯时间扫描统计量检测到暴发时晚了两天，信号较弱（P = 0.039）。
前瞻性时空扫描统计量能充分利用传染病数据中的时空信息，能及时、有效地检测到从本地开始的暴发。前瞻性时空扫描统计量可成为地方和国家疾病预防控制中心建立早期检测监测系统的重要工具。
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