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全球作物预测。

Global crop forecasting.

出版信息

Science. 1980 May 16;208(4445):670-9. doi: 10.1126/science.208.4445.670.

Abstract

Many foreign countries are as dependent on imports of food as the United States is on imports of oil. As the world's largest exporter of food, the United States needs reliable information on fluctuating foreign crop production. But available information is often inadequate and at best untimely. It is gathered by the foreign governments' often outmoded systems and its release may be delayed out of economic self-interest. Recently three U.S. government agencies put together a crop inventory system using satellite remote sensing and worldwide weather reporting and tested it in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). A 1977 real-time forecast of U.S.S.R. wheat production indicates that the approach works and may be expandable to other areas and other crops.

摘要

许多国家像美国依赖进口石油一样依赖进口粮食。美国是世界最大的粮食出口国,需要可靠的信息来了解国外农作物产量的波动情况。但是,现有的信息往往是不充分的,而且最多是不合时宜的。这些信息是由外国政府的过时系统收集的,出于经济自身利益的考虑,其发布可能会被延迟。最近,美国三个政府机构利用卫星遥感和全球气象报告,建立了一个作物库存系统,并在大区域作物清查实验(LACIE)中进行了测试。对 1977 年苏联小麦产量的实时预测表明,这种方法是有效的,并且可能扩展到其他地区和其他作物。

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