Science. 1986 Apr 11;232(4747):243-5. doi: 10.1126/science.232.4747.243.
Most of the principal qualitative features of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon can be explained by a simple but physically motivated theory. These features are the occurrence of sea-surface warmings in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the associated trade wind reversal; the aperiodicity of these events; the preferred onset time with respect to the seasonal cycle; and the much weaker events in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The theory, in its simplest form, is a conceptual model for the interaction of just three variables, namely near-surface temperatures in the east and west equatorial ocean and a wind-driven current advecting the temperature field. For a large range of parameters, the model is naturally chaotic and aperiodically produces El Niño-like events. For a smaller basin, representing a smaller ocean, the events are proportionally less intense.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的大多数主要定性特征都可以用一个简单但具有物理动机的理论来解释。这些特征包括东太平洋海表暖水的发生和相关的信风逆转；这些事件的非周期性；相对于季节性周期的首选起始时间；以及大西洋和印度洋较弱的事件。该理论在其最简单的形式中，是三个变量相互作用的概念模型，即东、西赤道海洋的近表面温度和一个风驱动的洋流，它可以输运温度场。在大范围的参数下，该模型是自然混沌的，并且会周期性地产生类似厄尔尼诺的事件。对于较小的盆地，即较小的海洋，事件的强度相应地会降低。
