Science. 1994 Apr 1;264(5155):72-4. doi: 10.1126/science.264.5155.72.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among different nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）循环被建模为一个由季节周期驱动的低阶混沌过程。一个简单的模型表明，赤道太平洋海洋-大气振荡器可以与季节周期发生非线性共振，并且如果海洋和大气之间的耦合足够强，系统可能会由于海洋-大气系统在不同非线性共振之间的不规则跳跃而变得混沌。对 ENSO 预测模型的时间序列的分析与低阶混沌机制一致。
