Comte D, Eisenberg A, Lorca E, Pardo M, Ponce L, Saragoni R, Singh S K, Suárez G
Science. 1986 Jul 25;233(4762):449-53. doi: 10.1126/science.233.4762.449.
A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.
1985年3月3日，智利中部沿海发生了一次强烈地震（面波震级7.8级），给沿海城镇造成了严重破坏。主震震中附近在地震发生前11天出现了强烈的前震活动。1985年地震的余震确定了一个面积为170×110平方公里的破裂区域。此次地震是根据该地区大地震几乎恒定的重复时间（83±9年）进行预测的。对以往地震的分析表明，该地区大地震的破裂长度变化约为3倍。几乎恒定的重复时间和可变的破裂长度无法与地震复发的时间或滑动可预测模型相协调。该地区的大地震似乎涉及一种可变的破裂模式，但出于未知原因，仍然具有周期性。历史数据表明，1985年破裂带以南的地区现在应被视为一个具有高地震潜力的空区，可能在未来几十年内发生大地震。
