Ramstedt K, Giesecke J, Forssman L, Granath F
Department of Dermato-Venereology, University of Göteborg, Sweden.
Int J STD AIDS. 1991 Nov-Dec;2(6):428-31. doi: 10.1177/095646249100200607.
Models for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases, including AIDS, rely on sexual partner mixing patterns in the population. From data acquired through partner notification for infection with Chlamydia trachomatis among young people in Gothenburg, Sweden, it was possible to construct contact matrices for the variables 'rate of partner change' and 'social class' of the partners in pair formations. These matrices show a restricted mixing between these two variables for young heterosexual women. Therefore random mixing models will probably overestimate rate of spread and possibly final size of an epidemic of a sexually transmitted disease.
包括艾滋病在内的性传播疾病传播模型，依赖于人群中的性伴侣混合模式。从瑞典哥德堡年轻人中通过衣原体感染伴侣通知所获取的数据，得以构建成对关系中性伴侣的“更换伴侣率”和“社会阶层”这两个变量的接触矩阵。这些矩阵显示，年轻异性恋女性在这两个变量之间的混合有限。因此，随机混合模型可能会高估性传播疾病的传播速度以及疫情最终可能的规模。
