Science. 1990 Nov 30;250(4985):1210-7. doi: 10.1126/science.250.4985.1210.
Organizational errors are often at the root of failures of critical engineering systems. Yet, when searching for risk management strategies, engineers tend to focus on technical solutions, in part because of the way risks and failures are analyzed. Probabilistic risk analysis allows assessment of the safety of a complex system by relating its failure probability to the performance of its components and operators. In this article, some organizational aspects are introduced to this analysis in an effort to describe the link between the probability of component failures and relevant features of the organizaton. Probabilities are used to analyze occurrences of organizational errors and their effects on system safety. Coarse estimates of the benefits of certain organizational improvements can then be derived. For jacket-type offshore platforms, improving the design review can provide substantial reliability gains, and the corresponding expense is about two orders of magnitude below the cost of achieving the same result by adding steel to structures.
组织错误往往是关键工程系统故障的根源。然而，在寻找风险管理策略时，工程师往往倾向于专注于技术解决方案，部分原因是风险和故障的分析方式。概率风险分析通过将系统故障的概率与其组件和操作人员的性能联系起来，从而允许对复杂系统的安全性进行评估。在本文中，将一些组织方面引入到这种分析中，以努力描述组件故障的概率与组织相关特征之间的联系。概率用于分析组织错误的发生及其对系统安全性的影响。然后，可以得出对某些组织改进的收益的粗略估计。对于夹克式海上平台，改进设计审查可以提供实质性的可靠性收益，而相应的费用大约是通过向结构添加钢材来达到相同效果的费用的两个数量级以下。
