Paté-Cornell M Elisabeth, Bea Robert G
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305.Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Naval Architecture and Offshore Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720.
Risk Anal. 1992 Mar;12(1):1-18. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01302.x.
Probabilistic risk analysis, based on the identification of failure modes, points to technical malfunctions and operator errors that can be direct causes of system failure. Yet component failures and operator errors are often rooted in management decisions and organizational factors. Extending the analysis to identify these factors allows more effective risk management strategies. It also permits a more realistic assessment of the overall failure probability. An implicit assumption that is often made in PRA is that, on the whole, the system has been designed according to specified norms and constructed as designed. Such an analysis tends to overemphasize scenarios in which the system fails because it is subjected to a much higher load than those for which it was designed. In this article, we find that, for the case of jacket-type offshore platforms, this class of scenarios contributes only about 5% of the failure probability. We link the PRA inputs to decisions and errors during the three phases of design, construction, and operation of platforms, and we assess the contribution of different types of error scenarios to the overall probability of platform failure. We compute the benefits of improving the design review, and we find that, given the costs involved, improving the review process is a more efficient way to increase system safety than reinforcing the structure.
基于故障模式识别的概率风险分析指出了可能成为系统故障直接原因的技术故障和操作员失误。然而，部件故障和操作员失误往往源于管理决策和组织因素。将分析扩展以识别这些因素可制定更有效的风险管理策略。这也能对整体故障概率进行更现实的评估。概率风险分析中经常隐含的一个假设是，总体而言，系统是按照指定规范设计并按设计建造的。这种分析往往过度强调系统因承受远超其设计负荷而导致故障的情况。在本文中，我们发现，对于导管架式海上平台而言，这类情况仅占故障概率的约5%。我们将概率风险分析的输入与平台设计、建造和运营三个阶段的决策及失误联系起来，并评估不同类型错误情况对平台整体故障概率的贡献。我们计算改进设计审查的益处，并且发现，考虑到相关成本，改进审查过程是比加固结构更有效的提高系统安全性的方法。
