Segall P, Harris R
Science. 1986 Sep 26;233(4771):1409-13. doi: 10.1126/science.233.4771.1409.
A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.
自1959年以来，对横跨1966年加利福尼亚州帕克菲尔德地震（震级M = 6）破裂带附近圣安德烈亚斯断层的大地测量线网络进行了多次测量。在本文报道的研究中，对1966年以来的线长变化平均速率进行了反演，以确定该断层的震间滑动速率分布。这些结果表明，自1966年以来，帕克菲尔德破裂面没有发生显著滑动。将1966年地震的大地测量确定的地震矩与震间滑动亏损速率进行比较表明，尽管可能要到1995年才会发生，但最近一次地震释放的应变很可能在1984年至1989年之间恢复。这些结果为早期预测1988年5年内帕克菲尔德附近将发生M = 6级地震提供了独立支持。
