Kukla G, Gavin J
Science. 1981 Oct 30;214(4520):497-503. doi: 10.1126/science.214.4520.497.
The extent of Antarctic pack ice in the summer, as charted from satellite imagery, decreased by 2.5 million square kilometers between 1973 and 1980. The U.S. Navy and Russian atlases and whaling and research ship reports from the 1930's indicate that summer ice conditions earlier in this century were heavier than the current average. Surface air temperatures along the seasonally shifting belt of melting snow between 55 degrees and 80 degrees N during spring and summer were higher in 1974 to 1978 than in 1934 to 1938. The observed departures in the two hemispheres qualitatively agree with the predicted impact of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, since it is not known to, what extent the changes in snow and ice cover and in temperature can be explained by the natural variability of the climate system or by other processes unrelated to carbon dioxide, a cause-and-effect relation cannot yet be established.
根据卫星图像绘制的数据,1973年至1980年间,南极夏季浮冰面积减少了250万平方公里。美国海军和俄罗斯的地图集以及20世纪30年代捕鲸和研究船的报告表明,本世纪初的夏季冰情比当前平均水平更为严重。1974年至1978年春夏季期间,北纬55度至80度之间季节性移动的融雪带沿线的地表气温高于1934年至1938年。两个半球观测到的变化在定性上与大气二氧化碳增加的预测影响相符。然而,由于尚不清楚冰雪覆盖和温度的变化在多大程度上可由气候系统的自然变率或与二氧化碳无关的其他过程来解释,因此尚未能建立起因果关系。