Mattison Elizabeth H A, Norris Ken
Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 237, Reading RG6 6AR, United Kingdom.
Environ Sci Technol. 2007 Aug 15;41(16):5589-94. doi: 10.1021/es062211v.
The United States and the European Union have set targets for biofuel production to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce fossil carbon emissions. Attainment of biofuel targets depends upon policy and infrastructure development but also on production of suitable raw materials. Production of relevant crops relies on the decisions that farmers make in their economic and political environment. We need to identify any farmer-related barriers to biofuel production and to determine whether novel policy and technology are required to meet targets. These aspects of the emerging biofuel industry are relevant across international barriers and have not yet been addressed quantitatively. We describe a case study from the UK of farmers' intentions toward producing two biofuel crops for which refining capacity either exists or is under construction. Given farmers' intentions, current land use, and conversion efficiency, we estimate potential biofuel production. These estimates indicate that EU targets are not achievable using domestically grown raw materials without policy intervention, use of alternative feedstocks, and either significant improvements in processing efficiency or large-scale changes in land use.
美国和欧盟已设定生物燃料生产目标，以减少对化石燃料的依赖并降低化石碳排放量。生物燃料目标的实现不仅取决于政策和基础设施的发展，还取决于合适原材料的生产。相关作物的生产依赖于农民在其经济和政治环境中所做出的决策。我们需要确定与农民相关的生物燃料生产障碍，并确定是否需要新的政策和技术来实现目标。新兴生物燃料产业的这些方面跨越国际障碍，尚未进行定量分析。我们描述了一个来自英国的案例研究，内容是农民种植两种生物燃料作物的意向，目前这两种作物的精炼能力已经具备或正在建设中。根据农民的意向、当前土地使用情况和转化效率，我们估算了潜在的生物燃料产量。这些估算表明，如果没有政策干预、使用替代原料，以及在加工效率上取得显著提高或土地使用发生大规模变化，仅使用国内种植的原材料是无法实现欧盟目标的。
