Impact of expected changes in national papanicolaou test volume on the cytotechnology labor market: an impending crisis.

With the new screening and treatment guidelines and the prospect of human papillomavirus vaccination for adolescents, the current total volume of Papanicolaou (Pap) tests will be significantly reduced. We used available data to assess the current supply and demand in the cytotechnology labor market and how an expected change in Pap test volume impacts this market. Cytotechnologists' data were obtained from the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP) Board of Registry and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Data for wages and vacancies were obtained from American Society for Cytotechnologists and ASCP Surveys. Cytotechnology training program data were obtained from annual reports of the Cytotechnology Programs Review Committee of American Society for Cytopathology. In the current market, the demand for cytotechnologists increases by 3.6% and the supply by 4.0% each year. At any given time, there is a vacancy rate of 3%. In the coming years, the demand will decrease remarkably with a projected total demand for cytotechnologists of 5,623 instead of 8,033 by the year 2010 and of 8,538 instead of 14,146 by the year 2026. The cytotechnology market faces an impending crisis. There is a high need for prospectively collected accurate data on demand for and supply of cytotechnologists.