Nitatpattana Narong, Singhasivanon Pratap, Kiyoshi Honda, Andrianasolo Haja, Yoksan Sutee, Gonzalez Jean-Paul, Barbazan Philippe
Center for Vaccine Development, Research Center for Emerging Viral Disease, Institute of Science and Technology for Research and Development, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.
Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2007 May;38(3):427-33.
A pilot study was designed to analyze a potential association between dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and, temperature computed by satellite. DHF is a mosquito transmitted disease, and water vapor and humidity are known to have a positive effect on mosquito life by increasing survival time and shortening the development cycle. Among other available satellite data, Land Surface Temperature (LST) was chosen as an indicator that combined radiated earth temperature and atmospheric water vapor concentration. Monthly DHF incidence was recorded by province during the 1998 epidemic and obtained as a weekly combined report available from the National Ministry of Public Health. Conversely, LST was calculated using remotely sensed data obtained from thermal infrared sensors of NOAA satellites and computed on a provincial scale. Out of nine selected study provinces, five (58.3%) exhibited an LST with a significant positive correlation with rainfall (p < 0.05). In four out of nineteen surveyed provinces (21.3%), LST showed a significant positive correlation with DHF incidence (p < 0.05). Positive association between LST and DHF incidence was significantly correlated in 75% of the cases during non-epidemic months, while no correlation was found during epidemic months. Non-climatic factors are supposed to be at the origin of this discrepancy between seasonality in climate (LST) and DHF incidence during epidemics.
一项初步研究旨在分析登革出血热（DHF）发病率与卫星计算的温度之间的潜在关联。登革出血热是一种由蚊子传播的疾病，已知水汽和湿度通过延长存活时间和缩短发育周期对蚊子的生存有积极影响。在其他可用的卫星数据中，地表温度（LST）被选作一个综合了地球辐射温度和大气水汽浓度的指标。1998年疫情期间，按月记录各省的登革出血热发病率，并从国家卫生部获取每周综合报告。相反，地表温度是利用从美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）卫星的热红外传感器获得的遥感数据计算得出，并按省级尺度进行计算。在九个选定的研究省份中，有五个（58.3%）的地表温度与降雨量呈显著正相关（p < 0.05）。在19个被调查省份中的四个（21.3%），地表温度与登革出血热发病率呈显著正相关（p < 0.05）。在非流行月份，75%的病例中地表温度与登革出血热发病率呈显著正相关，而在流行月份未发现相关性。非气候因素被认为是导致气候季节性（地表温度）与疫情期间登革出血热发病率之间差异的原因。
