Rangel Thiago Fernando L V B, Diniz-Filho Jose Alexandre F, Colwell Robert K
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06269, USA.
Am Nat. 2007 Oct;170(4):602-16. doi: 10.1086/521315. Epub 2007 Aug 9.
Evolutionary processes underlying spatial patterns in species richness remain largely unexplored, and correlative studies lack the theoretical basis to explain these patterns in evolutionary terms. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate, under a pattern-oriented modeling approach, whether evolutionary niche dynamics (the balance between niche conservatism and niche evolution processes) can provide a parsimonious explanation for patterns in species richness. We model the size, shape, and location of species' geographical ranges in a multivariate heterogeneous environmental landscape by simulating an evolutionary process in which environmental fluctuations create geographic range fragmentation, which, in turn, regulates speciation and extinction. We applied the model to the South American domain, adjusting parameters to maximize the correspondence between observed and predicted patterns in richness of about 3,000 bird species. Predicted spatial patterns, which closely resemble observed ones (r2=0.795), proved sensitive to niche dynamics processes. Our simulations allow evaluation of the roles of both evolutionary and ecological processes in explaining spatial patterns in species richness, revealing the enormous potential of the link between ecology and historical biogeography under integrated theoretical and methodological frameworks.
物种丰富度空间格局背后的进化过程在很大程度上仍未得到探索，相关研究缺乏从进化角度解释这些格局的理论基础。在本研究中，我们开发了一个空间明确的模拟模型，以一种面向格局的建模方法来评估进化生态位动态（生态位保守和生态位进化过程之间的平衡）是否能够为物种丰富度格局提供一个简洁的解释。我们通过模拟一个进化过程来对多变量异质环境景观中物种地理范围的大小、形状和位置进行建模，在这个过程中，环境波动导致地理范围破碎化，进而调节物种形成和灭绝。我们将该模型应用于南美洲地区，调整参数以使模型预测的约3000种鸟类的丰富度格局与观测格局之间的对应关系最大化。预测的空间格局与观测格局非常相似（r2 = 0.795），且对生态位动态过程敏感。我们的模拟能够评估进化过程和生态过程在解释物种丰富度空间格局中的作用，揭示了在综合理论和方法框架下生态与历史生物地理学之间联系的巨大潜力。
