21世纪初俄罗斯北方民族人口状况
Demography of peoples of the Russian North in the beginning of XXI century.
作者信息
Bogoyavlenskiy Dmitriy
机构信息
Center for Demography and Human Ecology, Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia.
出版信息
Alaska Med. 2007;49(2 Suppl):269-72.
Against the background of natural decline in population of all Russia, in particular, the Russians, the demographic situation of peoples of the North is at times considered as "moderately optimistic". In this case the growth of their number serves according to last population census, as a decisive factor. Contrary to the above, many researchers in different regions and among different peoples of the North speak about economic decline and growth of unemployment, an impoverishment of indigenous northerners, their high morbidity and death rate and estimate the demographic situation as "catastrophic". The criterion thus becomes the social crisis in northern settlements. Estimating the demographic situation it is necessary to lean on demographic criteria as such. But the dynamics of the number of the North's peoples, i.e. the sole result of the population census reflecting "well-being", is not such a pure demographic criterion. It was, as we have shown, investigating the data of four population censuses of the USSR (1959,1970,1979,1989), determined in many respects not only, and not at all so much by their demographic movement (i.e. birth rate and death rate), but rather by ethnic (assimilation) processes, and sometimes simply by discrepancies in the census work. While in 1959-89 peoples of the North used to be assimilated by other peoples, in 1989-2002 a reverse tendency became pronounced among some of these peoples. Over a quarter of an inter-census growth was due to ethnic assimilation among six peoples (the Khants, Mansis, Itelmens, Selkups, Kets and Saami). The comparison of inter-census living out among peoples of the North demonstrates that the death rate among them is considerably higher, than the very high death rate of the entire population of Russia. The actual demographic parameters provide evidence for obviously unfavorable tendencies. There was a sharp decrease in birth rate (the overall ratio has decreased from 30% during the 5-year period before the 1989 census up to 18% in 1999-2002). Death rate has grown. Though the overall ratio is lower, than for the whole population of Russia, it is explained by the young age structure of peoples of the North (only 6 % are older than 60, and 18 %--are older than 45; in Russia--18% and 37% accordingly). The average life expectancy (a more adequate yardstick to measure mortality) among peoples of the North is more than 10 years less than the average Russian one. It is less, than among other indigenous peoples of the North (in Scandinavia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland). The share of deaths due to external reasons (accidents, poisonings, suicides and homicides) is enormous; among peoples of the Tyumen North it makes 37% of all the deaths, and in Russia as a whole it is 14% (though the Russian figure itself is far too high by international standards). It is exactly the death rate that determines the nature of the demographic situation. No ultrahigh birth rate in the modern world can serve as an indicator of "well-being" (otherwise the demographically safe region would be Africa south of Sahara). Therefore, certainly we have to define the demographic condition of peoples of the North as a crisis. And further decrease in birth rate with such a high death rate can surely lead to their factual depopulation. Numerical smallness makes them most vulnerable in this respect, while in fact the prospect of vanishing worries much more numerous peoples just as well.
在全俄罗斯人口自然减少,尤其是俄罗斯族人口减少的背景下,北方各民族的人口状况有时被视为“适度乐观”。根据上次人口普查,他们人口数量的增长是一个决定性因素。但与此相反,北方不同地区和不同民族的许多研究人员谈到经济衰退、失业率上升、北方原住民贫困化、高发病率和高死亡率,并将人口状况评估为“灾难性”。因此,衡量标准变成了北方定居点的社会危机。评估人口状况时必须依据人口统计学标准本身。但是北方各民族人口数量的动态变化,即人口普查反映“福祉”的唯一结果,并非如此纯粹的人口统计学标准。正如我们所表明的,通过研究苏联四次人口普查(1959年、1970年、1979年、1989年)的数据可知,这在很大程度上并非仅仅由他们的人口动态变化(即出生率和死亡率)决定,而更多是由民族(同化)过程决定,有时仅仅是由人口普查工作中的差异决定。在1959 - 1989年期间,北方各民族曾被其他民族同化,而在1989 - 2002年期间,其中一些民族出现了相反的趋势。超过四分之一的两次人口普查期间的人口增长是由于六个民族(汉特人、曼西人、伊捷尔缅人、塞尔库普人、克特人、萨米人)之间的民族同化。对北方各民族两次人口普查期间的迁出情况进行比较表明,他们的死亡率比俄罗斯全体人口极高的死亡率还要高得多。实际的人口统计学参数证明了明显不利的趋势。出生率急剧下降(总体比率从1989年人口普查前5年期间的30%降至1999 - 2002年的18%)。死亡率上升。尽管总体比率低于俄罗斯全体人口,但这是由于北方各民族的年龄结构年轻(只有6%的人年龄超过60岁,18%的人年龄超过45岁;在俄罗斯相应比例分别为18%和37%)。北方各民族的平均预期寿命(衡量死亡率更合适的指标)比俄罗斯人的平均预期寿命少10多年。这比其他北方原住民(在斯堪的纳维亚、阿拉斯加、加拿大和格陵兰)的平均预期寿命还低。外部原因(事故、中毒、自杀和他杀)导致的死亡比例极高;在秋明州北部各民族中,这一比例占所有死亡人数的37%,而在俄罗斯全国范围内这一比例为14%(尽管按照国际标准俄罗斯的这一数字本身就过高)。正是死亡率决定了人口状况的性质。现代世界中没有超高的出生率能作为“福祉”的指标(否则撒哈拉以南非洲将是人口安全地区)。因此,我们肯定必须将北方各民族的人口状况定义为危机。在如此高的死亡率情况下出生率进一步下降肯定会导致他们实际人口减少。人口数量少使他们在这方面最为脆弱,而实际上消失的前景也同样困扰着更多的民族。
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