Mitra S
Department of Sociology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia.
Soc Biol. 1991 Fall-Winter;38(3-4):281-4. doi: 10.1080/19485565.1991.9988796.
A regression model expressing the age-specific fertility rates at a given point of time as a variable dependent upon the same at the preceding points of time has been developed by Das Gupta for purposes of fertility projection. The model, judged by the values of the multiple correlation coefficients, appears to work very well with the U.S. data set, and it also produces limiting values of the fertility rates when the projection is carried far into the future. The conditions of convergence of such a model have been determined in this paper according to which the model's usefulness for purposes of long-term projection of fertility rates appears to be severely restricted.
达斯·古普塔开发了一种回归模型，用于生育率预测，该模型将特定时间点的年龄别生育率表示为依赖于先前时间点相同数据的变量。从多重相关系数的值来看，该模型在美国数据集上似乎运行良好，并且在将预测延伸到遥远未来时，它还能得出生育率的极限值。本文确定了这种模型的收敛条件，据此，该模型在生育率长期预测方面的有用性似乎受到严重限制。
