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行为调查支持系统在连环性侵犯犯罪者侧写中的应用。

Application of the behavioral investigative support system for profiling perpetrators of serial sexual assaults.

作者信息

Yokota Kaeko, Fujita Goro, Watanabe Kazumi, Yoshimoto Kaori, Wachi Taeko

机构信息

Department of Behavioral Sciences and Criminology, National Research Institute of Police Science, 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0882, Japan.

出版信息

Behav Sci Law. 2007;25(6):841-56. doi: 10.1002/bsl.793.

Abstract

The authors developed a data-based profiling system in order to support offender profiling. The system stored incident records of prior offenders. Inputting offence details of an unsolved incident, a probability score was assigned to each prior offender in the system; the score represented the behavioral similarity with the unsolved incident. The system then ranked all offenders in the system according to the probability scores, and prioritized the high-ranked offenders as possible suspects. Moreover, the system inferred the characteristics of unknown offenders by accumulating characteristics of the high-ranked offenders. The system achieved promising accuracy, especially for linking crimes to perpetrators. In 45 out of 81 simulation trials, the target offenders were retrieved as a rank score of 1 from among 868 sex offenders.

摘要

作者开发了一个基于数据的侧写系统以支持罪犯侧写。该系统存储了先前罪犯的事件记录。输入未解决事件的犯罪细节后,会为系统中的每个先前罪犯分配一个概率分数;该分数代表与未解决事件的行为相似性。然后,系统根据概率分数对系统中的所有罪犯进行排名,并将排名靠前的罪犯列为可能的嫌疑人。此外,该系统通过累积排名靠前的罪犯的特征来推断未知罪犯的特征。该系统取得了可观的准确率,尤其是在将犯罪与犯罪者关联方面。在81次模拟试验中的45次试验中,从868名性犯罪者中检索出目标犯罪者的排名分数为1。

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