Yokota Kaeko, Fujita Goro, Watanabe Kazumi, Yoshimoto Kaori, Wachi Taeko
Department of Behavioral Sciences and Criminology, National Research Institute of Police Science, 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0882, Japan.
Behav Sci Law. 2007;25(6):841-56. doi: 10.1002/bsl.793.
The authors developed a data-based profiling system in order to support offender profiling. The system stored incident records of prior offenders. Inputting offence details of an unsolved incident, a probability score was assigned to each prior offender in the system; the score represented the behavioral similarity with the unsolved incident. The system then ranked all offenders in the system according to the probability scores, and prioritized the high-ranked offenders as possible suspects. Moreover, the system inferred the characteristics of unknown offenders by accumulating characteristics of the high-ranked offenders. The system achieved promising accuracy, especially for linking crimes to perpetrators. In 45 out of 81 simulation trials, the target offenders were retrieved as a rank score of 1 from among 868 sex offenders.
作者开发了一个基于数据的侧写系统以支持罪犯侧写。该系统存储了先前罪犯的事件记录。输入未解决事件的犯罪细节后,会为系统中的每个先前罪犯分配一个概率分数;该分数代表与未解决事件的行为相似性。然后,系统根据概率分数对系统中的所有罪犯进行排名,并将排名靠前的罪犯列为可能的嫌疑人。此外,该系统通过累积排名靠前的罪犯的特征来推断未知罪犯的特征。该系统取得了可观的准确率,尤其是在将犯罪与犯罪者关联方面。在81次模拟试验中的45次试验中,从868名性犯罪者中检索出目标犯罪者的排名分数为1。