Sarang Amin, Vahedi Arman, Shamsai Abolfazl
Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Manage. 2008 Feb;41(2):200-20. doi: 10.1007/s00267-007-9047-5.
Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.
自1987年布伦特兰报告中提出这一术语以来，可持续发展问题在量化方面一直面临挑战。不同的政策选择或多或少可能符合可持续性的基本原则，但目前尚无分析工具可用于更深入地评估可持续程度。总体而言，在管理决策中运用可持续性概念主要有两大思想流派：测量流派和监测流派。衡量相对可持续性是弥合水资源系统可持续性理论与实践差距的关键问题。本研究的目的是开发一种实用工具，基于包括可靠性、恢复力和脆弱性在内的基于风险的指标，量化和评估水质系统的相对可持续程度。目前针对伊朗最大的河流卡伦河开展的工作包括开发一个综合模型，该模型由两个主要部分组成：一个用于评估溶解氧 - 生化需氧量（DO - BOD）响应的水质模拟子程序，以及一个通过一次二阶矩法（FORM）和蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）估算基于风险指标的子程序。我们还通过最低成本和均匀处理方法开发了一个简单的废物负荷分配模型，以便在给定所需可靠性值的情况下考虑污染物控制成本的最优点，该可靠性值针对两个不同目标中的溶解氧。本文开发的基于风险的方法，特别是通过FORM技术，似乎是一种评估相对可持续性的适当有效工具。此外，我们在卡伦系统中的结果表明，通过投入资金进行处理和严格的污染控制，同时要求在当前环境保护态度转变的情况下实现技术进步，可持续性值可能会发生显著变化。
