Scandellari C
III Cattedra di Patologia Speciale Medica e Metodologia Clinica, Università degli Studi, Padova.
Ann Ist Super Sanita. 1991;27(3):385-93.
Following review of the basic principles of Bayes' theorem, its application to diagnostic procedures is discussed. It is asserted that Bayes' theorem can be applied to clinical diagnostics, provided that disease prior probabilities can be calculated and it can be assumed that a particular patient and those included in the calculation of prior probabilities represent two samples of the same homogeneous population. Problems associated with both these requirements are briefly reviewed. With the aid of some clinical examples, the usefulness of Bayes' theorem is detailed in: (a) evaluating the information obtained through the results of diagnostic studies, (b) evaluating the level of diagnostic reliability achieved with obtained data and (c) a priori evaluation, i.e. before knowing the result, of what kind of information a test can supply. It is concluded that Bayes' theorem is a powerful tool in the rational control and improvement of diagnostic procedures, if not relevant in the formulation of the diagnosis of a single patient.
在回顾了贝叶斯定理的基本原理之后，讨论了其在诊断程序中的应用。有人认为，只要能够计算疾病的先验概率，并且可以假设特定患者与用于计算先验概率的患者代表同一同质总体的两个样本，贝叶斯定理就可以应用于临床诊断。简要回顾了与这两个要求相关的问题。借助一些临床实例，详细阐述了贝叶斯定理在以下方面的作用：(a)评估通过诊断研究结果获得的信息；(b)评估利用所得数据实现的诊断可靠性水平；(c)在知晓检测结果之前对检测所能提供的信息类型进行先验评估。得出的结论是，贝叶斯定理是合理控制和改进诊断程序的有力工具，尽管它与单个患者的诊断制定无关。
