Hartwig Jochen
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, WEH E7, Weinbergstrasse 35, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
J Health Econ. 2008 May;27(3):603-23. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.05.006. Epub 2007 Dec 4.
The share of health care expenditure in GDP rises rapidly in virtually all OECD countries, causing increasing concern among politicians and the general public. Yet, economists have to date failed to reach an agreement on what the main determinants of this development are. This paper revisits Baumol's [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415-426] model of 'unbalanced growth', showing that the latter offers a ready explanation for the observed inexorable rise in health care expenditure. The main implication of Baumol's model in this context is that health care expenditure is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This hypothesis is tested empirically using data from a panel of 19 OECD countries. Our tests yield robust evidence in favor of Baumol's theory.
几乎在所有经合组织国家,医疗保健支出在国内生产总值(GDP)中的占比都在迅速上升,这引发了政界人士和公众越来越多的关注。然而,迄今为止,经济学家们尚未就这一发展趋势的主要决定因素达成共识。本文重新审视了鲍莫尔[鲍莫尔,W.J.,1967年。不平衡增长的宏观经济学:城市危机剖析。《美国经济评论》57(3),415 - 426]的“不平衡增长”模型,表明该模型为观察到的医疗保健支出不可阻挡的增长提供了现成的解释。鲍莫尔模型在此背景下的主要含义是,医疗保健支出是由超过生产率增长的工资增长推动的。使用来自19个经合组织国家的面板数据对这一假设进行了实证检验。我们的检验得出了支持鲍莫尔理论的有力证据。