Basakha Mehdi, Yavari Kazem, Sadeghi Hosein, Naseri Alireza
Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
J Res Health Sci. 2014 Spring;14(2):152-6.
Because of the rapid aging rate, the share of health expenditure in gross domestic product rises irreversibly and increases concern among politicians and the general public. The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of the Baumol's model of unbalanced growth in Iran over the period 1981-2010.
This theoretical-analytical study was conducted in 2012 to investigate the various determinants of ongoing rise in the health expenditures. To this end, an Error Correction Model was derived from the long run cointegrating equation to inquire the veracity of Baumol's theory.
Estimating the short run and long run equations by using time series data shows that the rate of increase in health expenditure is aligned with the difference between wage increases in and growth of productivity in the health sector. Besides, results show that both the per capita income and the inflation rate of health care had significant effects on raising the share of health sector in domestic economy.
According to rapid population aging and existence of Baumol's cost disease in Iranian health sector, we predict much more rise in health expenditure in a few decades.
由于快速的老龄化速度，卫生支出在国内生产总值中的占比不可逆地上升，这引发了政界人士和公众越来越多的关注。本研究旨在考察1981年至2010年期间伊朗不平衡增长的鲍莫尔模型的准确性。
本理论分析研究于2012年开展，以探究卫生支出持续增长的各种决定因素。为此，从长期协整方程推导出误差修正模型，以探究鲍莫尔理论的真实性。
使用时间序列数据估计短期和长期方程表明，卫生支出的增长率与卫生部门工资增长和生产率增长之间的差异一致。此外，结果表明人均收入和医疗保健通货膨胀率对提高卫生部门在国内经济中的占比均有显著影响。
鉴于伊朗人口快速老龄化以及卫生部门存在鲍莫尔成本病，我们预计未来几十年卫生支出将大幅增加。
