Cousineau Denis
Département de Psychologie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Br J Math Stat Psychol. 2009 Feb;62(Pt 1):167-91. doi: 10.1348/000711007X270843. Epub 2008 Jan 3.
The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is the most commonly used method to estimate the parameters of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. However, it returns biased estimates. In this paper, we show how to calculate weights which cancel the biases contained in the MLE equations. The exact weights can be computed when the population parameters are known and the expected weights when they are not. Two of the three weights' expected values are dependent only on the sample size, whereas the third also depends on the population shape parameters. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the practicability of the weighted MLE method. When compared with the iterative MLE technique, the bias is reduced by a factor of 7 (irrespective of the sample size) and the variability of the parameter estimates is also reduced by a factor of 7 for very small sample sizes, but this gain disappears for large sample sizes.
最大似然估计(MLE)方法是估计三参数威布尔分布参数最常用的方法。然而,它会给出有偏估计。在本文中,我们展示了如何计算权重以消除MLE方程中包含的偏差。当总体参数已知时可以计算出精确权重,当总体参数未知时可以计算出期望权重。三个权重中的两个期望值仅取决于样本量,而第三个权重还取决于总体形状参数。蒙特卡罗模拟证明了加权MLE方法的实用性。与迭代MLE技术相比,偏差降低了7倍(与样本量无关),对于非常小的样本量,参数估计的变异性也降低了7倍,但对于大样本量,这种优势就消失了。