Johnston Matt, Holloway Tracey
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison 53726, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2007 Dec 1;41(23):7967-73. doi: 10.1021/es062459k.
This study presents a consistent, national-level evaluation of potential biodiesel volumes and prices, replicated across 226 countries, territories, and protectorates. Utilizing all commercially exported lipid feedstocks from existing agricultural lands, we compare the upper-limit potential for expanded biodiesel production in terms of absolute biodiesel volumes, profitable potential from biodiesel exports, and potential from expanded vegetable oil production through agricultural yield increases. Country findings are compared across a variety of economic, energy, and environmental metrics. Our results show an upper-limit worldwide volume potential of 51 billion liters from 119 countries; 47 billion of which could be produced profitably at today's import prices. Also significant production gains are possible through increasing agricultural yields: a 12-fold increase over existing potential, primarily hinging on better management of tropical oilseed varietals.
本研究针对226个国家、地区和保护地,进行了一次连贯的国家级潜在生物柴油产量及价格评估。我们利用现有农田所有商业出口的脂质原料,从生物柴油绝对产量、生物柴油出口盈利潜力以及通过提高农业产量扩大植物油生产的潜力等方面,比较了扩大生物柴油生产的上限潜力。我们还根据各种经济、能源和环境指标,对各国的研究结果进行了比较。结果显示,全球119个国家的生物柴油产量上限潜力为510亿升;按当前进口价格计算,其中470亿升可实现盈利生产。此外,通过提高农业产量也有可能实现大幅增产:在现有潜力的基础上增加12倍,主要取决于对热带油籽品种的更好管理。