Wagner Robert F
Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Building 62, Room 3126, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993-0002, USA.
Med Phys. 2007 Dec;34(12):4944-51. doi: 10.1118/1.2805252.
A favorite cliché, often attributed to Yogi Berra, is "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future!" In this brief review, we shall recall some historical difficulties in predicting the future of diagnostic medical imaging--in particular, the modern technologies of CT and MRI--and examine the analogous situation in the emerging technology of diagnostic microarrays for the multiple-biomarker problem. All of these technologies began their lives as ill-conditioned problems, i.e., there was insufficient data to solve the central problem at hand.
一句常被认为是约吉·贝拉所说的流行陈词滥调是:“预测很难,尤其是对未来的预测!”在这篇简短的综述中,我们将回顾一些在预测诊断医学成像未来方面的历史难题——特别是CT和MRI等现代技术——并审视新兴的用于多生物标志物问题的诊断微阵列技术中的类似情况。所有这些技术在诞生之初都是病态问题,也就是说,没有足够的数据来解决手头的核心问题。