Smith George Davey
MRC Centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology, Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Basic Clin Pharmacol Toxicol. 2008 Feb;102(2):245-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1742-7843.2007.00191.x.
The influence of factors acting during the intrauterine period on health outcomes of offspring is of considerable research and public health interest. There are, however, methodological challenges in establishing robust causal links, because exposures often act many decades before outcomes of interest, may act before it is evident that women are pregnant and would enter pregnancy birth cohorts, and may also be strongly related to other factors, generating considerable degrees of potential confounding. The degree of confounding can sometimes be estimated by comparing the association between exposures experienced by the mother during pregnancy and outcomes among the offspring with the association of exposures experienced by the father during the pregnancy period and offspring outcomes. If the effects are due to an intrauterine exposure, then maternal exposure during pregnancy should have a clearly greater influence than paternal exposure. A different approach is that of Mendelian randomization, which utilizes genetic variants of known functional effect that can proxy for modifiable exposures. If carried by the mother, these variants would influence the intrauterine environment experienced by her offspring. These genetic variants are stable over time and can be assessed after pregnancy is complete or even after outcomes in the offspring have been observed. The variants would also not generally be related to potential confounding factors. Other epidemiological strategies are briefly reviewed. It is concluded that the naïve acceptance of findings utilizing conventional epidemiological methods in this setting is misplaced.
子宫内时期的各种因素对后代健康结局的影响具有重大的研究和公共卫生意义。然而,在建立有力的因果联系方面存在方法学上的挑战,因为暴露往往在感兴趣的结局出现前数十年就已发生,可能在女性明显怀孕并进入妊娠出生队列之前就已起作用,而且还可能与其他因素密切相关,从而产生相当程度的潜在混杂。有时可以通过比较母亲孕期经历的暴露与后代结局之间的关联,以及父亲孕期经历的暴露与后代结局之间的关联,来估计混杂程度。如果这些影响是由于子宫内暴露所致,那么母亲孕期的暴露应该比父亲的暴露有明显更大的影响。另一种方法是孟德尔随机化,它利用已知功能效应的基因变异来替代可改变的暴露。如果由母亲携带,这些变异会影响其后代所经历的子宫内环境。这些基因变异随时间稳定,可在妊娠结束后甚至在观察到后代结局后进行评估。这些变异通常也与潜在的混杂因素无关。本文简要回顾了其他流行病学策略。得出的结论是,在这种情况下单纯接受利用传统流行病学方法得出的研究结果是不恰当的。