急诊结直肠手术癌症患者预后模型的外部验证

External validation of prognostic models among cancer patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.

作者信息

Ertan Tamer, Yoldas Omer, Kilic Yusuf Alper, Kilic Mehmet, Göcmen Erdal, Koc Mahmut, Tez Mesut

机构信息

Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey.

出版信息

Am J Surg. 2008 Apr;195(4):439-41. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2007.03.012.

DOI:10.1016/j.amjsurg.2007.03.012

PMID:18304513

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of different scoring systems on patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.

METHODS

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II or III, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Mortality Probability Model II, and the Colo-rectal POSSUM scoring systems were applied to 102 patients who underwent colorectal resection for cancer. Validation of scoring systems was tested by assessing calibration and discrimination. Calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the corresponding calibration curves. Evaluation of the discriminative capability of both models was performed using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 17 deaths occurred. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II showed good calibration (x(2) = 1.079, P = .982) and discrimination (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve .83).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that the SAPS II scoring system was accurate in predicting outcome for patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在评估不同评分系统对接受急诊结直肠手术患者的预测准确性。

方法

将急性生理与慢性健康状况评估II或III、简化急性生理学评分II、死亡概率模型II和结直肠POSSUM评分系统应用于102例因癌症接受结直肠切除术的患者。通过评估校准和辨别能力来测试评分系统的有效性。使用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验和相应的校准曲线评估校准情况。使用受试者工作特征曲线分析对两种模型的辨别能力进行评估。