A quasi-2D flood modeling approach to simulate substance transport in polder systems for environment flood risk assessment.

In flood modeling, many one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic and water quality models are too restricted in capturing the spatial differentiation of processes within a polder or system of polders and two-dimensional (2D) models are too demanding in data requirements and computational resources, especially if Monte-Carlo techniques are to be used for model uncertainty analyses. The first goal of this paper is to show the successful development of a quasi-2D modeling approach which still calculates the dynamic wave in 1D but the discretisation of the computational units is in 2D, allowing a better spatial representation of the flow and substance transport processes in the polders without a large additional expenditure on data pre-processing and simulation processing. The models DYNHYD (1D hydrodynamics) and TOXI (sediment and micro-pollutant transport) were used as a basis for the hydrodynamic and water quality simulations. An extreme flood event on the Elbe River, Germany, with a proposed polder system variant was used as a test case. The results show a plausible differentiation of suspended sediment and zinc concentrations within the polders both spatially and temporally. This fulfills the second goal of this research. The third goal of this work is to provide an example methodology of carrying out an environmental risk assessment in inundated areas by flood waters, as required by the European Union floods directive. The deposition of zinc in polders was used for this example, due to its high contamination potential in the Elbe River. The extended quasi-2D modeling system incorporates a Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis to assess the environmental impact of heavy metal deposition in the polders during extreme flooding. The environmental risk computed gives a 48% chance of exceeding the inspection value of 500 mg zinc/kg sediment for a flood such as the August 2002 event.