Akobeng A K
Department of Paediatric Gastroenterology, Central Manchester and Manchester Children's University Hospitals, Booth Hall Children's Hospital, Charlestown Road, Blackley, Manchester, UK.
Arch Dis Child. 2008 Aug;93(8):710-3. doi: 10.1136/adc.2008.137083. Epub 2008 May 2.
Although various measures can be used to describe the benefits and harms of treatments, not all of these clearly show the benefits or otherwise of treatments in a clinically useful way. Relative risk and relative risk reduction are commonly used to describe the results of studies, but they are of limited clinical usefulness as they do not take baseline risks into account and tend to exaggerate the results of studies. Absolute risk measures such as the number needed to treat (NNT) and the number needed to harm (NNH) allow risk to be expressed in a much more clinically relevant way. The absolute risk measures reflect baseline risk and more accurately indicate the magnitude of the treatment effect. However, because they vary according to the baseline risk of the population, they are of limited generalisability, and the published NNT of a treatment in one population cannot be directly applied to another population with a different baseline risk. There are, however, a number of simple methods which can allow us to estimate NNTs or NNHs for our own patients based on published data. The benefits of a treatment (expressed as the NNT) and the harms of the treatment (expressed as the NNH) can be combined into a single ratio called the likelihood of being helped or harmed (LHH). LHH can be adjusted for individual patients by taking account of their own values and unique circumstances.
虽然可以采用多种方法来描述治疗的益处和危害,但并非所有这些方法都能以临床实用的方式清晰地显示治疗的益处或其他方面。相对危险度和相对危险度降低常用于描述研究结果,但它们的临床实用性有限,因为它们没有考虑基线风险,而且往往会夸大研究结果。绝对危险度测量指标,如需治疗人数(NNT)和需伤害人数(NNH),能以更具临床相关性的方式来表达风险。绝对危险度测量指标反映了基线风险,并能更准确地表明治疗效果的大小。然而,由于它们会因人群的基线风险不同而有所变化,其普遍性有限,一种治疗方法在某一人群中公布的NNT不能直接应用于具有不同基线风险的另一人群。不过,有一些简单的方法可以让我们根据已发表的数据为自己的患者估算NNT或NNH。治疗的益处(以NNT表示)和治疗的危害(以NNH表示)可以合并为一个单一的比值,称为受益或受害可能性(LHH)。通过考虑患者自身的价值观和独特情况,LHH可以针对个体患者进行调整。