de-Camino-Beck T, Lewis M A
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2G1, Canada.
Am Nat. 2008 Jul;172(1):128-39. doi: 10.1086/588060.
Abstract: Understanding the relationship between life-history patterns and population growth is central to demographic studies. Here we derive a new method for calculating the timing of reproductive output, from which the generation time and its variance can also be calculated. The method is based on the explicit computation of the net reproductive rate (R0) using a new graphical approach. Using nodding thistle, desert tortoise, creeping aven, and cat's ear as examples, we show how R0 and the timing of reproduction is calculated and interpreted, even in cases with complex life cycles. We show that the explicit R0 formula allows us to explore the effect of all reproductive pathways in the life cycle, something that cannot be done with traditional analysis of the population growth rate (lambda). Additionally, we compare a recently published method for determining population persistence conditions with the condition R0 > 1 and show how the latter is simpler and more easily interpreted biologically. Using our calculation of the timing of reproductive output, we illustrate how this demographic measure can be used to understand the effects of life-history traits on population growth and control.
理解生活史模式与种群增长之间的关系是人口统计学研究的核心。在此,我们推导了一种计算繁殖产出时间的新方法,由此还可计算世代时间及其方差。该方法基于一种使用新图形方法对净繁殖率(R0)进行的显式计算。以点头蓟、沙漠龟、匍匐燕麦和猫耳草为例,我们展示了如何计算和解释R0以及繁殖时间,即使在具有复杂生命周期的情况下。我们表明,显式的R0公式使我们能够探究生命周期中所有繁殖途径的影响,而这是传统种群增长率(λ)分析无法做到的。此外,我们将最近发表的一种确定种群持续存在条件的方法与R0>1的条件进行了比较,并展示了后者如何更简单且在生物学上更易于解释。通过我们对繁殖产出时间的计算,我们说明了这种人口统计学度量如何可用于理解生活史特征对种群增长和控制的影响。