Chen Yung Kun, Chen Chia-Yon, Hsieh Tsui Fang
Department of Marketing and Logistics Management, Chung Chou Institute of Technology, Changhwa 510, Taiwan.
Environ Monit Assess. 2009 Aug;155(1-4):407-17. doi: 10.1007/s10661-008-0443-y. Epub 2008 Jul 25.
The study utilizes the method of Material Flow, Ecological Footprint Model and other related indicators to establish the Indicator System of Sustainable Development. Principal Component Analysis is used to abstract the representative factors in order to estimate the indicators of ecological sustainable development during 1998~2005 in Taiwan, as well as to make policy recommendations. The research indicates following results: (1) The Direct Material Input (DMI) of Taiwan shows constant instability and depends on heavy import activity. The annual increase of considerable greenhouse gas emission leads to a comparative growth of the Domestic Process Output (DOP). The both material consumption and inventory formation of the economy are unsteady. In addition, the Physical Trade Balance (PTB) indicates that supply exceeds demand, as well as the occasional shortage of building materials. (2) The 2005 per capita Ecological Demand footprint in Taiwan is 6.5392 hm(2), making the Ecological Deficit per capita 4.8569 hm(2). The figures reflect that productivity and life intensity of residents have exceeded the carrying capacity of Taiwan's ecological economic system. (3) The overall Synthetic Trend Indicators of Sustainable Development in Taiwan are decreasing. Therefore, if proper measures are not adopted in time, the current weak sustainability will lead into the vicious circle which departs from sustainable development.
本研究运用物质流、生态足迹模型等相关指标的方法来建立可持续发展指标体系。采用主成分分析法提取代表性因素,以估算1998年至2005年台湾地区生态可持续发展指标,并提出政策建议。研究结果如下:(1)台湾地区的直接物质投入(DMI)呈现持续不稳定状态,且依赖大量进口活动。温室气体排放量的年度大幅增加导致国内加工产出(DOP)相对增长。经济的物质消费和库存形成均不稳定。此外,实物贸易平衡(PTB)表明供过于求,以及建筑材料偶尔短缺。(2)2005年台湾地区人均生态需求足迹为6.5392公顷,人均生态赤字为4.8569公顷。这些数据反映出居民的生产力和生活强度已超过台湾地区生态经济系统的承载能力。(3)台湾地区可持续发展的总体综合趋势指标呈下降趋势。因此,如果不及时采取适当措施,当前脆弱的可持续性将导致背离可持续发展的恶性循环。