Backman Carl-Magnus
Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala, Sweden.
J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2008;71(18):1244-53. doi: 10.1080/15287390802209582.
This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.
本文是一篇关于在人口不断增长的世界中矿产资源逐渐减少这一主题的简短综述。文中描述了储量、资源和寿命指数的概念。对2050年全球铁（Fe）、铝（Al）、铜（Cu）、锌（Zn）、镍（Ni）和铅（Pb）等金属的消费量进行了预测。有证据表明，金属不会出现物质枯竭（固定存量范式），但某些金属的开采成本将变得过高（机会成本范式）。文中还介绍了未来对镉（Cd）、汞（Hg）、砷（As）和硒（Se）的需求。最后，介绍了一些目前对矿产勘探者极具吸引力且可能在未来社会中发挥重要作用的金属。
