Mathematical model for in vivo pharmacodynamics integrating fluctuation of the response: application to the prolactin suppressant effect of the dopaminomimetic drug DCN 203-922.

We propose a general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model that integrates the rhythmic fluctuation of hormone secretion for the description of the hormone-lowering effect of a drug. The mathematical model takes into account the variation in response observed after administration of a placebo and the drug. It is assumed that the change with time in the physiological response during the placebo period results from fluctuations in the concentration of hypothetical endogenous molecules. The mathematical formulation for predicting the response after drug intake is derived assuming competitive interaction of these "molecules" with the active species for binding to receptors. The suggested "fluctuation model" was implemented in order to describe the time course of the prolactin (PRL) plasma level after administration of two oral doses (2.5 and 5.0 mg) of the dopaminomimetic compound DCN 203-922 (DCN) to 9 healthy male subjects. Its performance was compared with that of conventional modeling approaches, in which the circadian changes after placebo are neglected and the hormone baseline is assumed to be constant. The new model provided a better description of the time course of PRL in most subjects. It was used for prediction of the amplitude and duration of the PRL suppressant effect after single and chronic administration of DCN at various dosage regimens as well as after changes in drug absorption.