Monsere Christopher M, Fischer Edward L
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207-0751, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Sep;40(5):1773-80. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.018. Epub 2008 Jul 23.
The addition of illumination where none was present is generally believed to have a positive effect on motor vehicle safety; reducing the frequency, as well as the severity of crashes. The operational cost of illumination, however, can make it a candidate for conservation during periods of high energy costs. In response to a forecasted energy shortage, the Oregon Department of Transportation selectively reduced illumination on interstate highways as part of an energy-saving effort. The reductions occurred at 44 interchanges and along 5.5 miles of interstate highway. This paper presents the results of a crash-based analysis of the changes in safety performance using an empirical-Bayes observational methodology. The study found an increase in reported crashes where the lineal lighting was reduced both in total crashes (28.95%, P=0.05) and injury night crashes (39.21%, P=0.07). Where full interchange lighting was reduced to partial lighting, a 2.46% increase (P=0.007) in total night crashes was observed. Injury night crashes, however, decreased by 12.16% (P<0.001) though day injury crashes also decreased at these locations. Unexpectedly, for interchanges where illumination was reduced from partial plus to partial, a 35.24% decrease (P<0.001) in total crashes and 39.98 (P<0.001) decrease in injury night crashes was found, though again, day crashes also decreased.
在原本没有照明的地方增加照明通常被认为对机动车安全有积极影响，可减少事故发生的频率以及事故的严重程度。然而，照明的运营成本可能使其在能源成本高昂时期成为节能的对象。为应对预计的能源短缺，俄勒冈州交通运输部作为节能措施的一部分，有选择地减少了州际公路上的照明。减少照明的路段包括44个立交桥以及5.5英里长的州际公路。本文采用经验贝叶斯观测方法，呈现了基于事故的安全性能变化分析结果。研究发现，在直线照明减少的地方，报告的事故有所增加，包括总事故（增加28.95%，P = 0.05）和夜间受伤事故（增加39.21%，P = 0.07）。在全立交桥照明减少为部分照明的地方，夜间总事故增加了2.46%（P = 0.007）。不过，夜间受伤事故减少了12.16%（P < 0.001），尽管这些地点的白天受伤事故也有所减少。出乎意料的是，对于照明从部分加减少到部分的立交桥，总事故减少了35.24%（P < 0.001），夜间受伤事故减少了39.98%（P < 0.001），同样，白天事故也减少了。
