Huang Helai, Chin Hoong Chor, Haque Md Mazharul
Traffic Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Drive 2, EW1, 04-02B, Singapore 117576, Singapore.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Jan;40(1):45-54. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.04.002. Epub 2007 May 2.
Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time and in good street-lighting condition as well as those involving pedestrian injuries tend to be less severe. But crashes that occur in night time, at T/Y type intersections, and on right-most lane, as well as those that occur in intersections where red light cameras are installed tend to be more severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash and thus induce less severe injuries, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.
大多数碰撞严重程度研究都忽略了同一碰撞事故中涉及的驾驶员-车辆单元之间的严重程度相关性。未考虑这些碰撞内部相关性的模型将导致因子效应估计出现偏差。本研究开发了一种贝叶斯分层二项逻辑模型，以识别影响信号交叉口交通事故中驾驶员受伤和车辆损坏严重程度的显著因素。采用新加坡的碰撞数据对模型进行校准。使用组内相关系数（ICC）和偏差信息准则（DIC）进行模型拟合评估和比较，确保了引入碰撞水平随机效应的适用性。高峰时段、街道照明条件良好时发生的碰撞事故以及涉及行人受伤的碰撞事故往往不太严重。但夜间、T/Y型交叉口、最右侧车道发生的碰撞事故，以及安装了红灯摄像头的交叉口发生的碰撞事故往往更严重。此外，重型车辆对严重碰撞具有更好的抵抗力，因此造成的伤害较轻，而涉及两轮车辆、年轻或老年驾驶员以及违规方参与的碰撞事故更有可能导致重伤。
