[Epidemiological trend of gastric cancer in Tianjin, 1981-2002].

OBJECTIVE

To explore the secular trend in incidence and mortality rate of gastric cancer in Tianjin and to provide evidence and reference for making prevention and control strategy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

Data derived from Tianjin cancer registry system were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method and Joinpoint model. A total of 17990 gastric cancer cases reported in Tianjin from 1981 to 2002, including 12755 males and 5235 females were studied.

RESULTS

The annual percent change (APC) of crude incidence rate for males and females was -0.92% (Z = -3.85, P = 0.001) and -0.79% (Z = -2.67, P = 0.015), while the APC of standard incidence rate was -3.55% (Z = -13.52, P = 0.000) and -3.47% (Z = -12.85, P = 0.000). There was a descending trend of incidence rate in males and females above 45-years-old, however, in male under 45 years it showed an increased trend and in females it kept stable. The APC of crude mortality rate was -1.66% ( Z = -5.79, P = 0.000) for males and -1.84% (Z = -6.02,P = 0.000) for females, while the APC of standard mortality rate was -4.60% ( Z = -15.79, P = 0.000) for females and -5.36% ( Z = -8.28, P = 0.000) for males during 1989-2002. Mortality and incidence ratio also indicated a downward trend.

CONCLUSION

Despite its declining trend in Tianjin, gastric cancer still remains an important public health problem in facing of the aging society and many risk factors.