Sun Xiu-di, Mu Ren, Zhou You-shang, Dai Xu-dong, Zhang Si-wei, Huangfu Xiao-mei, Sun Jie, Li Lian-di, Lu Feng-zhu, Qiao You-lin
Cancer Institute (Hospital), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
Zhonghua Zhong Liu Za Zhi. 2004 Jan;26(1):4-9.
To analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of stomach cancer in twenty years in China.
Stomach cancer mortality data collected from the China national survey over the period 1970s - 1990s for the cause of death were analyzed.
The adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer in 1990s increased by 11.0% and 6.3% for males and females, respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality, while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60% higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s, the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22.2% and 26.7% for males and females, respectively. In contrast, the rural mortality rate increased by 26.4% and 22.1% for males and females, respectively. The sex ratio of stomach cancer deaths in 1990s, both in cities and rural areas, was slightly greater than that in 1970s, being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s, the mortality rate decreased in 12 provinces, accounting for 44% in both sexes (12/27), but the decrease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinces where the increased rates ranked top six positions, the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females.
The overall mortality rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend, despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrease in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries, the world-adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks first. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age groups (> 60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (30 - 59 years). Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible for the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.
分析并预测中国未来二十年胃癌死亡率的变化趋势。
分析了中国20世纪70年代至90年代全国死因调查收集的胃癌死亡率数据。
20世纪90年代，男性和女性胃癌调整死亡率分别上升了11.0%和6.3%。20世纪70年代城市死亡率略高于农村，而到了90年代，农村死亡率比城市死亡率高出约60%。20世纪90年代，城市男性和女性调整死亡率分别下降了22.2%和26.7%。相比之下，农村男性和女性死亡率分别上升了26.4%和22.1%。20世纪90年代，城市和农村地区胃癌死亡的性别比均略高于70年代，农村地区更为明显。20世纪90年代，12个省份的死亡率下降，占两性的44%（12/27），但除江苏省外，女性下降幅度比男性更明显。在死亡率上升幅度排名前六位的省份中，男性上升幅度高于女性。
过去20年中国胃癌总体死亡率呈上升趋势，尽管27个省份有升有降，城市下降而农村上升。与其他国家相比，中国男女胃癌世界调整死亡率均居首位。胃癌死亡率上升趋势在老年人群（>60岁）中明显，而在年轻人群（30 - 59岁）中呈下降趋势。人口老龄化可能是中国胃癌死亡率上升的一个重要因素。
