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验证和测试条件推理中的演绎合理性。

Deductive rationality in validating and testing conditional inferences.

作者信息

Schroyens Walter, Schaeken Walter

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Gent, Gent, Belgium.

出版信息

Can J Exp Psychol. 2008 Sep;62(3):163-73. doi: 10.1037/a0012886.

Abstract

We asked people to validate conditional inferences (e.g., "A, therefore C" with "if A then C"). People are more likely to look for falsifications ("A and not-C") versus confirmations ("A and C") given a forced choice. Second, falsification rates are lower for logically valid versus invalid inferences. Logically valid inferences are inferences that follow necessarily. Experiment 1 (N = 96) shows that emphasising this logicality constraint increases falsification rates in the validation task and corroborates that validation-by-falsification increases logically correct inference evaluations. Experiment 2 (N = 41) corroborates the other way round that people who are more likely to make logically correct evaluations, show higher falsification performance in the validation task. The results support mental-models theory and suggest alternative theories similarly need to specify how people would go about looking for counterexamples. We proffer such a specification for two alternatives to the model theory.

摘要

我们要求人们对条件推理进行验证(例如,对于“如果A那么C”,验证“A,所以C”)。在强制选择的情况下,人们更倾向于寻找证伪的例子(“A且非C”)而非证实的例子(“A且C”)。其次,逻辑有效的推理与无效的推理相比,证伪率更低。逻辑有效的推理是必然成立的推理。实验1(N = 96)表明,强调这种逻辑性约束会提高验证任务中的证伪率,并证实通过证伪进行验证会增加逻辑正确的推理评估。实验2(N = 41)从相反的方向证实,那些更有可能做出逻辑正确评估的人,在验证任务中表现出更高的证伪能力。这些结果支持心理模型理论,并表明其他理论同样需要说明人们将如何寻找反例。我们为模型理论的两种替代理论提供了这样的说明。

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