Poljak Zvonimir, Dewey Catherine E, Friendship Robert M, Martin S Wayne, Christensen Jette, Ojkic Davor, Wu John, Chow Eva
Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1.
Can J Vet Res. 2008 Jul;72(4):303-10.
The objective of this study was to estimate the apparent and true prevalence of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii in Ontario finisher pigs. During the study period (2001 to 2004), sera from 6048 pigs were tested with a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); 103 farms were included 1 to 3 times in the study. True prevalence was estimated using a Bayesian approach. Apparent prevalence at the pig level was 1.59% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45, 2.99] in 2001, 0.06% (95% CI: 0.00, 0.46) in 2003, and 0.26% (95% CI: 0.00, 0.82) in 2004. Apparent prevalence at the herd-level was 13.7% (95% CI: 7.5, 22.3) in 2001; 1.25% (95% CI: 0.03, 6.77) in 2003, and 3.75% (95% CI: 0.78, 10.6) in 2004. Similarly, posterior Bayesian estimates of true prevalence at the pig level were 1.7% [95% probability interval (PI): 1.2, 2.2] in 2001, 0.2% (95% PI: 0.04, 0.4) in 2003, and 0.3% (95% PI: 0.1, 0.7) in 2004. At the herd level, posterior estimates of prevalence were 11.6% (95% PI: 7.4, 16.8) in 2001, 0% (95% PI: 0.0, 2.5) in 2003, and 1.2% (95% PI: 0.0, 5.0) in 2004 when a herd cut-point > or = 1 was used. Exposure to T. gondii in finishing pig farms in Ontario appears to be infrequent.
本研究的目的是估计安大略省育肥猪弓形虫暴露的表观患病率和真实患病率。在研究期间(2001年至2004年),使用商业酶联免疫吸附测定(ELISA)对6048头猪的血清进行检测;103个农场被纳入研究1至3次。使用贝叶斯方法估计真实患病率。2001年猪水平的表观患病率为1.59%[95%置信区间(CI):0.45,2.99],2003年为0.06%(95%CI:0.00,0.46),2004年为0.26%(95%CI:0.00,0.82)。2001年畜群水平的表观患病率为13.7%(95%CI:7.5,22.3);2003年为1.25%(95%CI:0.03,6.77),2004年为3.75%(95%CI:0.78,10.6)。同样,2001年猪水平真实患病率的贝叶斯后验估计为1.7%[95%概率区间(PI):1.2,2.2],2003年为0.2%(95%PI:0.04,0.4),2004年为0.3%(95%PI:0.1,0.7)。在畜群水平上,当使用畜群切点≥1时,2001年患病率的后验估计为11.6%(95%PI:7.4,16.8),2003年为0%(95%PI:0.0,2.5),2004年为1.2%(95%PI:0.0,5.0)。安大略省育肥猪场中弓形虫的暴露似乎并不常见。
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