Phytopathology. 1999 Jul;89(7):603-8. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO.1999.89.7.603.
ABSTRACT Aphid vector species population composition is known to affect the spatial patterns of citrus tristeza virus (CTV) and the changes in these patterns over time. However, the biological processes that are associated with virus spread have not been well defined. The spatiotemporal dynamics of CTV were examined using data collected from research plots in the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica, where the brown citrus aphid (BCA), Toxoptera citricida, was the predominant species, and in Florida, where the BCA was absent and the melon aphid, Aphis gossypii, was the predominant vector. Data were analyzed using a spatiotemporal stochastic model for disease spread, and parameter values were evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration methods. Where the melon aphid was the dominant species, the model parameter likelihood values supported the hypothesis that the disease was spread through a combination of random background transmission (transmission originating from inoculum sources outside the plot) and a local interaction (transmission from inoculum sources within the plot) operating over short distances. Conversely, when BCA was present, results often suggested a local short-range transmission interaction that was not restricted to nearest-neighbor interactions and that the presence of background infection was not necessary to explain the observations.
摘要 已知蚜虫媒介物种的种群组成会影响柑橘衰退病毒（CTV）的空间格局，以及这些格局随时间的变化。然而，与病毒传播相关的生物学过程尚未得到很好的定义。本研究使用在多米尼加共和国和哥斯达黎加的研究点收集的数据，以及佛罗里达州的数据，利用时空随机模型来研究 CTV 的时空动态，在佛罗里达州，棕色柑橘蚜（BCA）不存在，而是以棉蚜（Aphis gossypii）为主要媒介。在分析过程中，采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗随机积分方法来评估模型参数值。当棉蚜为主要物种时，模型参数似然值支持这样的假设，即疾病是通过随机背景传播（源自田间外接种源的传播）和局部相互作用（源自田间内接种源的传播）的组合在短距离内传播的。相反，当 BCA 存在时，结果通常表明存在局部短程传播相互作用，而不限于最近邻相互作用，并且不需要背景感染来解释观察结果。
