Virulence and transmission modes in metapopulations: when group selection increases virulence.

Individuals that are infected by a pathogen can transmit it to unrelated conspecifics (horizontal transmission) or to their progeny when they reproduce (vertical transmission). The mechanisms of these two routes of transmission are different and this difference impacts the way virulence evolves in pathogens. More precisely, horizontal transmission depends on the probability that an infected host contacts susceptible conspecifics, and therefore on its lifespan. Vertical transmission additionally depends on the host's fecundity. This additional dependence in vertically transmitted pathogens results in a decrease in their evolutionarily stable (ES) virulence. Spatial structure is another factor that is often supposed to decrease pathogens' ES virulence, mostly because it impedes competition for transmission in local populations of hosts. In this paper, using the adaptive dynamics framework, we show that spatial structure can increase ES virulence when pathogens are mostly vertically transmitted. This is due to the difference in how pathogens compete for transmission in local population of hosts, depending on how they are transmitted. We also show that symbionts that are horizontally transmitted should respond more to a change in spatial structure than symbionts that are vertically transmitted.