Crowley Thomas J, Hyde William T
School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK.
Nature. 2008 Nov 13;456(7219):226-30. doi: 10.1038/nature07365.
Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.
早更新世的气候以41 kyr的周期变化,且与地球倾角的变化有关。大约90万年前,变率增加并主要以约100 kyr的周期振荡,这表明当时的联系与地球轨道的偏心率有关。这种转变通常归因于对外界边界条件微小变化的非线性响应。在此我们提出,过去一百万年里变率的增加可能表明气候系统正在接近第二个气候分叉点,在此之后它将再次转变为一个以北半球中纬度地区永久性冰川作用为特征的新稳定状态。从这个角度来看,过去一百万年可被视为地球气候演化中的一个过渡阶段。我们使用一个能量平衡/冰盖耦合模型来支持我们的假设,该模型还预测未来的转变将涉及欧亚冰盖的大幅扩张。导致这种突变的过程似乎是雪冰边缘的反照率不连续性。拟合度最佳的模型运行结果解释了过去40万年全球冰量变化中近60%的方差,预测在地质上不久的将来会迅速转变为所提出的冰川状态。如果达到这种状态,它将比当前气候更加“对称”,每个半球的冰/海冰覆盖面积相当,并且将代表从双极非冰川气候到双极冰川气候5000万年演化的顶点。